Is the World Keeping Its Promises on CO2 Targets?

Have we lost Emissions cut momentum?At the end of the not Awesome Copenhagen summit the world’s nations decided that they would set targets by the end of January about cutting CO2 emissions.

The EU says it will continue to shoot for a 20% cut in its emissions  under 1990 levels by 2020 and will go to 30% if other nations will too. President Obama submitted a letter of intention to cut emissions by 4% by 2020 under 1990 levels. Even that is in jeopardy with the most recent senate race won by a Republican. Norway rang in as the most ambitious, pledging a 30% cut under 1990 levels and with the possibility of going for 40%. China, India, South Africa and Brazil are meeting this weekend to discuss what their approach will be.

So what are we all going to do? The “Copenhagen Accord” failed to even be endorsed by the summit, merely “noted.” The biggest climate change meeting in the history of the world shouldn’t be expected to work the first time around- fine. But it should be expected to produce outrage and anger and action. And hope.

I used to work as an outdoor guide and we had this theory, from experiential education theory, that there were 4 group stages of development:

Forming- Storming- Norming- and Comforming.

I want to examine the world dealing with climate change issues from that angle.

Forming: The UN is formed. The group is made. There won’t be major additions or people dropping out (ok, maybe, but we’ll see). In contrast, the EU is still forming. Or the Small Island State Association.

Storming: This means arguing. We are deep in this stage. The honeymoon is long over for the UN- everyone has different points of view and perspectives and wants and needs and desires- this is not new- what it is is amplified because the world is huge and changing. Constantly. Then, climate change becomes an issue. So now, we are arguing about that- between rich and poor, green and not, and everywhere in between, above and below and beyond. This happens when people act like themselves but aren’t ready to actually live with each other yet.

Norming: Copenhagen failed to see this start to happen. We established the main arguments, but no one agreed on a basic way forward. In order for this to happen nations will need to agree on a collective way for them all to think about and deal with climate change.

Conforming: If the norming part ever happens, we’ll have to come around to get everyone actually doing what they agree on. Right now they aren’t even looking like they will all submit cut numbers. This will be tough.

In the end, it’s looking bleak for climate change agreements. The best we can hope for right now is that people will focus on what is possible in Mexico City- and what is possible? Norming.

Norming in Mexico City.

Photo Credit: woodleywonderworks (via Flickr under CCL)