Israel and Hamas are negotiating over the release of a single Israeli soldier who has been prisoner for over 3 years. Hamas is asking for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in exchange. While negotiations have been going on for as long the prisoner, Gilad Shalit, has been held by Hamas, negotiations have been ramping up in recent weeks.

Egypt is hosting a fresh round of negotiations and talks between Israel and Hamas, notable for the fact that someone besides the U.S. is doing the work of mediating between the two groups, and for the fact that Hamas, largely considered a terrorist group, is actually leaving their own territory to take part in the negotiations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that there is no deal thus far. He has been under a lot of pressure from Israeli citizens whose loved ones were killed by some of the Palestinian prisoners that killed Israelis. Understandable.

It is hard to see this as an isolated issue, in that whatever is going on in the negotiations does not have just to do with the two groups negotiating about Shalit and Palestinian prisoners- it has to do with the history between Israel and Hamas and how the two relate to each other. Any kind of negotiations around the two groups is inevitably going to lead to the issues that divide them in general, not just on this issue, and so it is hard for me to believe that there will be resolution on this issue alone- an exchange of prisoners between the two would have to touch on official recognition between them, just for diplomatic purposes, which, the last time I checked, was certainly not the case.

Germany has been assisting Egypt with hosting and mediating between the two, and they have been delivering messages between the two. Last week a German official delivered a response from Israel to Hamas about their request for the release of 1,000 – 11,000 prisoners in exchange for Shalit. When I first read about the proposed deal, it struck me as incredibly lopsided and hopeless- how could Israel possibly agree to this deal? Just on sheer numbers alone?

But it may have to do with some shrewd negotiating by Hamas, and with their desire to show a chip out of Israel’s diplomatic armor. If they can get Israel to release prisoners, it not only puts Palesinians out of prison, it shows that Israel is willing to deal in tactics that are outside the current diplomatic box. It is an on the ground negotiating tactic.

When I look at the ramifications of such a deal, it makes me think that they will want to use this technique at a later date in larger negotiations, which makes me think that Israel will try to negotiate ruling that out into any kind of deal, which in turn makes me think that this will fail for basic premise arguments that prisoner exchanges are not the basis for peace talks, but something that happens as a result of a larger agreement being made and met.

Prisoner exchanges are not a solution or a catalyst- they are a symptom and a result.

Photo Credit: Doug20020 (via Flickr under CCL)