On August 20 Afghanistan held its most recent election, an election that incumbent Hamid Karzai said he won. Since then the results of that election have been disputed, argued over, guessed about and basically been scrutinized and doubted from every angle. This may sound like another symptom of a young democracy that can’t figure out how to run an election- but before you write it off to inexperience, let’s try and remember how our 2000 election must have looked to the rest of the world, with our Supreme Court hearing arguments about hanging chads and nepotistic governors…

Point being, the dispute over election results in Afghanistan is reaching a moment of truth where they will either be verified or called into question officially, thereby requiring a re-do- yes, that’s the kid at the wiffle ball game when the tag out at home base was too close to call- a UN-backed watchdog may call re-do on Afghanistan.

That’s two months of uncertainty- I wonder what the news is like in Afghanistan- are they sitting around wondering if Karzai is really elected or have they pretty much given up on him as a corrupt official who rigged an election, or is there little question that he should be president and the whole vote-rigging thing is blown out of proportion.

Regardless of the public sentiment, a runoff would change the game in Afghanistan- indeed, questionable vote counting already has. Obama is delaying a decision about whether to send more troops as the Taliban insurgency grows to its fiercest in recent history- you have to know who is going to be in charge when you get there for new troops, I suppose.

Karzai garnered over 54% of the vote in the initial count, a pretty strong margin of victory for a presidential race- the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) continues to review thousands of disputed ballots. Reuters cites sources from the Washington Post who say that the ECC has brought the valid ballot count for Karzai down tot 47%- a significant drop and certainly one that would influence the runoff- or at least raise enough eyebrows to make it interesting.

What does Abdullah Abdullah, runner-up and run-off competitor with Karzai if (when) it does happen think about a second round of voting?

"Should it go to the second round? My preference is going for the second round. We are ready and I have not dismantled the infrastructure for campaigning though the campaign will be different this time and (under) any circumstances I will pursue the agenda for change," he said.
That second round of voting would become more difficult across the country, as travel become much more difficult during the winter in Afghanistan.

So Obama holds off on his decision, or at least the announcement of his decision, to know for sure what is going on and who is in control in Afghanistan. The ECC continues to keep a lid on their decision and count/ review ballots. NATO waits to see how many more troops will be coming, and the Taliban waits to see what the opposition will look like come winter…