The Future of the Taliban

What will the future for the Taliban in the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan hold?In the struggle against terrorism, the U.S. literally needs all the allies we can get. Not only do we need western countries to help with the various wars, namely in Afghanistan, through NATO and on their own, we desperately need to win the hearts and minds of the people who live in the countries where terrorism lives and breathes. If not, and we create animosity, we will only be, essentially, creating more terrorists.

This is one of the dangers faced by putting your military into a country and asking them to take out those who oppose you. On one hand, you are making the area safer and habitable for the people who are against the radical government or terrorist cells. On the other hand, you are basically putting forward an all military front, reinforcing the image of America as bully.

In one country, Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan and is a much needed ally in the hunt for al Qaeda members and the battle against their members and Taliban forces in the mountainous border between the two countries, there is evidence that the U.S. is becoming less loved, rather than more, and that has serious implications for the anit-terrorist message and mission of the United States. This according to a report that looks at likely societal changes in Pakistan over the next 1-3 years. It also predicts that the Taliban will not take control of the country, and that it will not obtain nuclear weapons. "Rather than an Islamist takeover, you should look at a subtle power shift from a secular pro-Western society to an Islamist anti-American one," said Jonathan Paris, a member of the Legatum Institute in London who authored the report.

He continues in the report: "Speculation of a Taliban takeover dramatically overestimates the willingness of the political and military elites to surrender power to the Taliban."

According to the report, Pakistani culture is subtly moving toward a more anti-American perspective, not a full military takeover that would put the country in the hands of the Taliban or other anti-American radical groups. And I think that makes sense as a prediction- afterall, the United States is not doing anything in Pakistan to make the impression that we are friendly- we are just there to protect our own interests.

This harkens back to an approach that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is advocating lately, saying that the U.S. must work to become friends with countries and work together diplomatically. Political groups in Pujab often employ anti-American rhetoric, and their influence is growing. At the same time, radical groups are splintering into multiple smaller groups, often with more sinister approaches to diplomacy. This makes for a more dangerous environment and also makes things more difficult to control as there is less centralized leadership.

One theory holds that he Taliban will assume de facto control in the northern part of Pakistan and that the Pakistani government will condone it rather than launch military action, as long as suicide bombings in major cities do not continue.

In the end, it seems that the Taliban may not be routed and decimated, afterall- instead, they may just move next door.

Photo Credit: CanadaGood (via Flickr under CCL)